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PRELIMINARY DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
07 FEBRUARY, 2012
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(Based in-part on SEC Data.)
(The final report will be released tommorrow.)
PRELIMINARY SOLAR & GEOPHYSICAL INDICES FOR 07 FEBRUARY, 2012
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DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, N/A, N/A sfu.
Predicted Solar Flux for Next 3 Days: 105, 100, 100.
Average 90-day Solar Flux: 137.
Current Middle Latitude A-Index: 11
Current Boulder K-Indices: 1324 323*
Current Planetary K-Indices: 1213 324*
Boulder A-Index 3-Day Forecast: 8, 8, 8.
Planetary A-Index 3-Day Forecast: 5, 8, 8.
SYNOPSIS OF TODAYS ACTIVITY
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Solar activity was low. Region 1410 (N19W79) produced
several C-class x-ray events over the period.
Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for moderate levels on day 1 (8 february). Activity
should decrease to very low levels on days 2-3 (9-10 february) after
region 1410 rotates off the west limb of the solar disk.
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled at mid latitudes with an
isolated minor storm observed between 07/09-15Z at a high latitude
station in college, alaska.
Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day 1 (8 february)
as the results of elevated solar wind speeds and intermittent
periods of negative bz. Unsettled to active levels are again
expected due to the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream on
days 2-3 (9-10 february).
Event probabilities 08 feb-10 feb
Class M 30/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
Geomagnetic activity probabilities 08 feb-10 feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/40/40
Minor storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 50/50/50
Minor storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
** End of Daily Report **